20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
6 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | EXPDNYSEExpeditors International of Washington, Inc. | 2013-05-012013-05-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -3.28% |
| 2 | TSLANASDAQTesla, Inc. | 2015-04-022015-04-30 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +4.76% |
| 3 | VZNYSEVerizon Communications Inc. | 2021-12-152022-01-12 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -0.09% |
| 4 | ERIENASDAQErie Indemnity Company | 2019-03-252019-04-22 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +6.09% |
| 5 | MDLZNASDAQMondelez International, Inc. | 2012-08-022012-08-29 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.54% |
| 6 | CHDNYSEChurch & Dwight Co., Inc. | 2006-12-072007-01-08 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.70% |
Showing 1-6 of 6 matches
Commentary
Bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 6 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 67% of the time with a median move of +1.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -3.3%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.