Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (4)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return4 outcomes
Commentary
Bullish historical skew on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 100% of the time with a median move of +3.3%. Results varied widely across historical cases. No historical forward outcomes finished negative, with the weakest outcome at +0.9%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.
Distribution
Average return was +10.6%, while median return was +3.3%. This suggests the average was influenced by a small number of outsized positive outcomes.
Risk
Risk was relatively contained in similar historical setups. No historical forward outcomes finished negative, with the weakest case at +0.9%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was limited because there were only 4 cases.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (4)
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Bullish historical skew on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 100% of the time with a median move of +3.3%. Results varied widely across historical cases. No historical forward outcomes finished negative, with the weakest outcome at +0.9%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.