Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (4)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return4 outcomes
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 50% and a median move of -0.1%. Results were relatively consistent across historical cases. Historical downside was relatively contained, with the worst outcome at -1.1%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between -0.8% and +0.1%. Average return was -0.3%, compared with a median return of -0.1%.
Risk
Risk was relatively contained in similar historical setups. The weaker 10% of outcomes were around -0.8% or worse over 5 trading days, with the weakest case at -1.1%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was limited because there were only 4 cases, and many matches came from overlapping market windows.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (4)
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 50% and a median move of -0.1%. Results were relatively consistent across historical cases. Historical downside was relatively contained, with the worst outcome at -1.1%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.