Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (5)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return5 outcomes
Commentary
Bullish historical skew on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 5 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 80% of the time with a median move of +2.9%. Results were relatively consistent across historical cases. Historical downside was relatively contained, with the worst outcome at -0.2%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between +0.4% and +3.3%. Average return was +2.1%, compared with a median return of +2.9%.
Risk
Risk was relatively contained in similar historical setups. The weaker 10% of outcomes were around +0.4% or worse over 5 trading days, with the weakest case at -0.2%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was limited because there were only 5 cases.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (5)
5 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Bullish historical skew on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 5 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 80% of the time with a median move of +2.9%. Results were relatively consistent across historical cases. Historical downside was relatively contained, with the worst outcome at -0.2%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.