20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
6 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRNANASDAQModerna, Inc. | 2020-08-182020-09-15 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +2.75% |
| 2 | JKHYNASDAQJack Henry & Associates, Inc. | 2020-06-222020-07-20 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -1.18% |
| 3 | MONYSEAltria Group, Inc. | 2019-05-072019-06-04 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +3.43% |
| 4 | TJXNYSEThe TJX Companies, Inc. | 2023-10-092023-11-03 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility2.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.59% |
| 5 | AZONYSEAutoZone Inc. | 2021-07-262021-08-20 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility2.0Range Pos.5.0Volume3.0Risk4.0 | -5.62% |
| 6 | CNYSECitigroup Inc. | 2017-10-252017-11-21 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility1.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +3.68% |
Showing 1-6 of 6 matches
Commentary
Bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 6 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 67% of the time with a median move of +1.7%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -5.6%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.