20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AXPNYSEAmerican Express Company | 2007-10-182007-11-14 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -8.05% |
| 2 | NRGNYSENRG Energy, Inc. | 2018-01-162018-02-12 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +3.92% |
| 3 | HPQNYSEHP Inc. | 2008-10-232008-11-19 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk4.0 | +6.60% |
| 4 | LDOSNYSELeidos Holdings Inc. | 2011-09-082011-10-05 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | +6.88% |
Showing 1-4 of 4 matches
Commentary
Bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 75% of the time with a median move of +5.3%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -8.1%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.