20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
5 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FANGNASDAQDiamondback Energy Inc | 2025-04-152025-05-13 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -4.65% |
| 2 | CVXNYSEChevron Corporation | 2025-04-152025-05-13 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.41% |
| 3 | NDAQNASDAQNasdaq, Inc. | 2007-01-122007-02-09 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | -13.12% |
| 4 | BF.BNYSEBrown-Forman Corporation | 2025-09-222025-10-17 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -2.65% |
| 5 | VRTNYSEVertiv Holdings Co | 2024-04-012024-04-26 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -0.51% |
Showing 1-5 of 5 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 5 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 100% of the time with a median move of -2.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -13.1%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.