20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
6 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CINYSEThe Cigna Group | 2019-08-272019-09-24 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -4.74% |
| 2 | SNANYSESnap-on Inc. | 2011-10-172011-11-11 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -5.22% |
| 3 | PHMNYSEPulteGroup Inc. | 2011-10-172011-11-11 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -5.03% |
| 4 | JCINYSEJohnson Controls International plc | 2012-11-152012-12-13 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +3.08% |
| 5 | BKNYSEThe Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 2011-10-172011-11-11 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -12.04% |
| 6 | CLNYSEColgate-Palmolive Company | 2007-09-132007-10-10 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility2.0Range Pos.4.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | +0.11% |
Showing 1-6 of 6 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 6 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 67% of the time with a median move of -4.9%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -12.0%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.