20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INCYNASDAQIncyte Corporation | 2025-12-292026-01-27 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -2.46% |
| 2 | MPCNYSEMarathon Petroleum Corporation | 2015-03-132015-04-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.69% |
| 3 | PSKYNASDAQParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | 2009-12-212010-01-20 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume2.0Risk5.0 | -1.92% |
| 4 | COPNYSEConocoPhillips | 2018-01-042018-02-01 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility2.0Range Pos.5.0Volume2.0Risk4.0 | -10.29% |
Showing 1-4 of 4 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 100% of the time with a median move of -2.2%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -10.3%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.