20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MOSNYSEMosaic Company | 2019-01-242019-02-21 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -5.73% |
| 2 | ADMNYSEArcher-Daniels-Midland Co | 2012-09-052012-10-02 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.51% |
| 3 | PGNYSEProcter & Gamble Co | 2023-11-032023-12-01 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -4.92% |
| 4 | ADMNYSEArcher-Daniels-Midland Co | 2018-05-292018-06-25 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.23% |
Showing 1-4 of 4 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 75% of the time with a median move of -3.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -5.7%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.