Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (10)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return10 outcomes
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes
Similar setups appeared 10 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 60% and a median move of +0.2%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -9.7%.
Distribution
Average return was -1.1%, while median return was +0.2%. This suggests the average was influenced by a small number of outsized negative outcomes.
Risk
Tail risk was significant. Similar setups occasionally produced sharp adverse outcomes, with the weakest historical case at -9.7% over 5 trading days.
Reliability
Historical evidence was useful but not definitive, based on 10 cases with moderate match diversity.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (10)
10 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes
Similar setups appeared 10 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 60% and a median move of +0.2%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -9.7%.