20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
9 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | INCYNASDAQIncyte Corporation | 2009-01-272009-02-24 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | -17.47% |
| 2 | HPENYSEHewlett Packard Enterprise Company | 2018-01-162018-02-12 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk4.0 | +4.89% |
| 3 | STTNYSEState Street Corp | 2018-01-162018-02-12 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk4.0 | +1.97% |
| 4 | ITWNYSEIllinois Tool Works Inc. | 2008-01-152008-02-12 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility2.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk4.0 | +0.51% |
| 5 | PSKYNASDAQParamount Skydance Corporation Class B Common Stock | 2009-12-212010-01-20 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume3.0Risk4.0 | -1.92% |
| 6 | WMTNASDAQWalmart Inc. | 2024-11-272024-12-26 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility1.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk4.0 | -2.17% |
| 7 | LLYNYSEEli Lilly and Company | 2024-10-012024-10-28 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility1.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk4.0 | -9.99% |
| 8 | NTRSNASDAQNorthern Trust Corporation | 2019-12-312020-01-29 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility2.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk4.0 | +3.79% |
| 9 | GLNYSEGlobe Life Inc. | 2024-08-162024-09-13 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility1.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk4.0 | +2.37% |
Showing 1-9 of 9 matches
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 9 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 56% and a median move of +0.5%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -17.5%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.