20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | AXPNYSEAmerican Express Company | 2007-10-182007-11-14 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -8.05% |
| 2 | MSCINYSEMSCI Inc. | 2019-09-092019-10-04 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.95% |
| 3 | TXNNASDAQTexas Instruments Inc | 2025-10-282025-11-24 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +8.68% |
| 4 | MONYSEAltria Group, Inc. | 2019-05-072019-06-04 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +3.43% |
Showing 1-4 of 4 matches
Commentary
Bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 75% of the time with a median move of +2.7%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -8.1%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.