20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
8 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CMCSANASDAQComcast Corp | 2025-07-092025-08-05 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -1.26% |
| 2 | METNYSEMetLife Inc. | 2022-04-052022-05-03 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.03% |
| 3 | YUMNYSEYum! Brands, Inc. | 2014-06-302014-07-28 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -5.37% |
| 4 | ITNYSEGartner Inc. | 2020-02-062020-03-05 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -18.51% |
| 5 | XOMNYSEExxon Mobil Corporation | 2008-08-142008-09-11 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +2.90% |
| 6 | AIGNYSEAmerican International Group Inc. | 2022-04-052022-05-03 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | -1.41% |
| 7 | FFIVNASDAQF5 Inc. | 2022-09-212022-10-18 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +6.27% |
| 8 | PAYXNASDAQPaychex Inc. | 2016-08-232016-09-20 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.77% |
Showing 1-8 of 8 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 8 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 62% of the time with a median move of -1.3%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -18.5%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.