Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (222)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return222 outcomes
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes
Similar setups appeared 222 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 52% and a median move of +0.2%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -43.5%.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between -5.3% and +5.6%. Average return was -0.1%, compared with a median return of +0.2%.
Risk
Tail risk was significant. Similar setups occasionally produced sharp adverse outcomes, with the weakest historical case at -43.5% over 5 trading days.
Reliability
Historical evidence was relatively robust, based on 222 cases across a well-diversified set of historical matches.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (222)
222 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes
Similar setups appeared 222 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 52% and a median move of +0.2%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -43.5%.