20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
3 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MTBNYSEM&T Bank Corporation | 2008-05-162008-06-13 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -5.86% |
| 2 | LENNYSELennar Corporation | 2016-09-092016-10-06 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.78% |
| 3 | CAGNYSEConagra Brands Inc. | 2015-10-232015-11-19 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk4.0 | +1.34% |
Showing 1-3 of 3 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 3 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 67% of the time with a median move of -2.8%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -5.9%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.