20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
9 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | FSLRNASDAQFirst Solar, Inc. | 2021-10-182021-11-12 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.30% |
| 2 | ELNYSEThe Estée Lauder Companies Inc. Class A | 2012-08-022012-08-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.33% |
| 3 | MASNYSEMasco Corporation | 2024-07-152024-08-09 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +5.01% |
| 4 | ACGLNASDAQArch Capital Group Ltd | 2020-10-282020-11-24 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | -4.17% |
| 5 | GSNYSEThe Goldman Sachs Group, Inc. | 2009-05-222009-06-19 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +2.52% |
| 6 | VLONYSEValero Energy Corporation | 2018-04-042018-05-01 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +2.23% |
| 7 | RSGNYSERepublic Services, Inc. | 2017-10-162017-11-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.59% |
| 8 | FENYSEFirstEnergy Corp. | 2022-11-172022-12-15 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -1.43% |
| 9 | MRKNYSEMerck & Co., Inc. | 2014-05-162014-06-13 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +1.17% |
Showing 1-9 of 9 matches
Commentary
Mild bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 9 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 56% of the time with a median move of +1.2%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -4.2%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.