20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
7 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSNYSEMorgan Stanley | 2018-10-222018-11-16 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.34% |
| 2 | NEMNYSENewmont Corporation | 2020-07-092020-08-05 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -10.49% |
| 3 | NKENYSENike, Inc. - Class B | 2019-05-242019-06-21 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -2.10% |
| 4 | PSXNYSEPhillips 66 | 2021-04-202021-05-17 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -2.58% |
| 5 | AZONYSEAutoZone Inc. | 2012-08-092012-09-06 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.34% |
| 6 | EIXNYSEEdison International | 2025-10-272025-11-21 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -0.77% |
| 7 | TGTNYSETarget Corporation | 2007-06-052007-07-02 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.52% |
Showing 1-7 of 7 matches
Commentary
Mild negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 7 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 57% of the time with a median move of -0.8%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -10.5%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.