20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
35 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MRKNYSEMerck & Co., Inc. | 2025-09-122025-10-09 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -4.09% |
| 2 | DELLNYSEDell Technologies Inc. | 2018-06-142018-07-12 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -0.40% |
| 3 | MASNYSEMasco Corporation | 2010-10-192010-11-15 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.58% |
| 4 | TROWNASDAQT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | 2023-11-272023-12-22 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.02% |
| 5 | BXNYSEBlackstone Inc. | 2023-11-272023-12-22 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.85% |
| 6 | IQVNYSEIQVIA Holdings Inc. | 2013-07-152013-08-09 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -3.24% |
| 7 | TSNNYSETyson Foods Inc. | 2021-07-222021-08-18 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -1.80% |
| 8 | GMNYSEGeneral Motors Company | 2013-03-222013-04-19 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +4.63% |
| 9 | STTNYSEState Street Corp | 2014-12-012014-12-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -5.98% |
| 10 | HIGNYSEThe Hartford Insurance Group, Inc. | 2014-12-012014-12-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -4.73% |
| 11 | SYKNYSEStryker Corporation | 2014-12-012014-12-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -3.18% |
| 12 | AMPNYSEAmeriprise Financial, Inc. | 2014-12-012014-12-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -8.06% |
| 13 | TROWNASDAQT. Rowe Price Group, Inc. | 2014-12-012014-12-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -5.67% |
| 14 | ERIENASDAQErie Indemnity Company | 2024-02-082024-03-07 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.07% |
| 15 | LINNASDAQLinde plc | 2014-12-012014-12-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -5.61% |
| 16 | PNCNYSEThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 2014-12-012014-12-29 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -7.46% |
| 17 | CATNYSECaterpillar Inc. | 2012-12-122013-01-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.65% |
| 18 | EMENYSEEMCOR Group, Inc. | 2023-07-112023-08-07 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.19% |
| 19 | AVGONASDAQBroadcom Inc. | 2014-08-132014-09-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.06% |
| 20 | DOWNYSEDow Inc. | 2023-11-272023-12-22 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.38% |
Showing 1-20 of 35 matches
Commentary
Historically negative skew with elevated downside risk
Similar setups appeared 35 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 74% of the time with a median move of -1.9%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -8.1%.