20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
9 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CAGNYSEConagra Brands Inc. | 2019-05-092019-06-06 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.51% |
| 2 | CVXNYSEChevron Corporation | 2012-01-102012-02-07 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -0.32% |
| 3 | PHNYSEParker-Hannifin Corporation | 2012-09-212012-10-18 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | -8.80% |
| 4 | MCKNYSEMcKesson Corporation | 2007-12-122008-01-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.10% |
| 5 | BALLNYSEBall Corp. | 2012-09-212012-10-18 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.05% |
| 6 | ETNNYSEEaton Corporation plc | 2012-09-212012-10-18 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.34% |
| 7 | AMZNNASDAQAmazon.com, Inc. | 2009-08-132009-09-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +7.86% |
| 8 | RTXNYSERTX Corporation | 2012-09-212012-10-18 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -2.45% |
| 9 | CMENASDAQCME Group Inc. | 2012-09-212012-10-18 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -4.61% |
Showing 1-9 of 9 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 9 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 78% of the time with a median move of -1.1%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -8.8%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.