20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
9 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PCGNYSEPG&E Corporation | 2022-03-172022-04-13 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.2.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -3.74% |
| 2 | CASYNASDAQCasey's General Stores Inc. | 2025-10-302025-11-26 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.2.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -1.41% |
| 3 | JCINYSEJohnson Controls International plc | 2025-11-182025-12-16 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | +1.92% |
| 4 | BIIBNASDAQBiogen Inc. | 2010-06-292010-07-27 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.2.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | -0.71% |
| 5 | ERIENASDAQErie Indemnity Company | 2016-04-052016-05-02 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +1.43% |
| 6 | GPNNYSEGlobal Payments Inc. | 2014-11-052014-12-03 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -4.69% |
| 7 | UHSNYSEUniversal Health Services, Inc. | 2013-12-172014-01-15 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -3.37% |
| 8 | LOWNYSELowe's Companies Inc. | 2021-06-142021-07-12 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.37% |
| 9 | FDSNYSEFactSet Research Systems Inc. | 2021-10-042021-10-29 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.2.0Volume2.0Risk5.0 | +0.68% |
Showing 1-9 of 9 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 9 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 67% of the time with a median move of -1.4%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -4.7%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.