20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
5 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | XOMNYSEExxon Mobil Corporation | 2016-02-112016-03-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +2.34% |
| 2 | PNCNYSEThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 2017-06-302017-07-28 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +3.54% |
| 3 | STTNYSEState Street Corp | 2011-10-172011-11-11 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -6.64% |
| 4 | BKNYSEThe Bank of New York Mellon Corporation | 2011-10-172011-11-11 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -12.04% |
| 5 | FSLRNASDAQFirst Solar, Inc. | 2020-10-062020-11-02 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -3.13% |
Showing 1-5 of 5 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 5 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 60% of the time with a median move of -3.1%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -12.0%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.