Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (10)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return10 outcomes
Commentary
Mild bullish historical skew
Similar setups appeared 10 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 60% of the time with a median move of +0.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -2.3%.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between -1.5% and +3.8%. Average return was +1.1%, compared with a median return of +0.6%.
Risk
Risk was elevated. Weaker historical cases fell around -1.5% or worse over 5 trading days, with the weakest case at -2.3%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was useful but not definitive, based on 10 cases with moderate match diversity.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Takeaway
Historical Matches (10)
10 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
The largest upside move reached during the five-day forward window before it closed.
+6.21%
Max Adverse Excursion
-3.70%
Similar setups historically leaned positive over 5 trading days, but downside risk was large enough that position sizing and risk control would matter.
Commentary
Mild bullish historical skew
Similar setups appeared 10 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 60% of the time with a median move of +0.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -2.3%.