Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (10)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return10 outcomes
Commentary
Strong bullish skew with elevated downside risk
Similar setups appeared 10 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 90% of the time with a median move of +4.0%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -0.1%.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between +0.1% and +10.7%. Average return was +4.8%, compared with a median return of +4.0%.
Risk
Risk was elevated. Weaker historical cases fell around +0.1% or worse over 5 trading days, with the weakest case at -0.1%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was useful but not definitive, based on 10 cases with moderate match diversity.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Takeaway
Historical Matches (10)
10 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
The largest upside move reached during the five-day forward window before it closed.
+13.49%
Max Adverse Excursion
-6.02%
Similar setups historically leaned positive over 5 trading days, but downside risk was large enough that position sizing and risk control would matter.
Commentary
Strong bullish skew with elevated downside risk
Similar setups appeared 10 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 90% of the time with a median move of +4.0%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -0.1%.