20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
5 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MSINYSEMotorola Solutions, Inc. | 2018-10-112018-11-07 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.05% |
| 2 | MANYSEMastercard Incorporated | 2008-12-112009-01-09 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -14.54% |
| 3 | WATNYSEWaters Corporation | 2013-04-182013-05-15 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.82% |
| 4 | GDNYSEGeneral Dynamics Corporation | 2017-09-132017-10-10 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -0.48% |
| 5 | MSNYSEMorgan Stanley | 2008-12-112009-01-09 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -18.21% |
Showing 1-5 of 5 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 5 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 80% of the time with a median move of -1.8%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -18.2%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.