Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (8)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return8 outcomes
Commentary
Bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 8 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 62% of the time with a median move of +1.7%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -3.0%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between -2.8% and +3.6%. Average return was +1.0%, compared with a median return of +1.7%.
Risk
Risk was elevated. Weaker historical cases fell around -2.8% or worse over 5 trading days, with the weakest case at -3.0%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was limited because there were only 8 cases.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (8)
8 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 8 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 62% of the time with a median move of +1.7%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -3.0%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.