20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
3 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | CMINYSECummins Inc. | 2021-12-172022-01-14 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -5.70% |
| 2 | COSTNASDAQCostco Wholesale Corporation | 2023-10-262023-11-22 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.62% |
| 3 | VMCNYSEVulcan Materials Company | 2009-03-062009-04-02 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -0.74% |
Showing 1-3 of 3 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 3 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 67% of the time with a median move of -0.7%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -5.7%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.