20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PMNYSEPhilip Morris International Inc. | 2024-09-192024-10-16 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +8.70% |
| 2 | BRONYSEBrown & Brown Inc. | 2025-09-152025-10-10 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -8.37% |
| 3 | MUNASDAQMicron Technology, Inc. | 2022-06-162022-07-15 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -0.39% |
| 4 | AXPNYSEAmerican Express Company | 2007-11-072007-12-05 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -6.65% |
Showing 1-4 of 4 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 75% of the time with a median move of -3.5%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -8.4%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.