Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (6)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return6 outcomes
Commentary
Bullish historical skew on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 6 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 100% of the time with a median move of +1.7%. Results were relatively consistent across historical cases. No historical forward outcomes finished negative, with the weakest outcome at +1.2%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between +1.4% and +4.6%. Average return was +2.6%, compared with a median return of +1.7%.
Risk
Risk was relatively contained in similar historical setups. No historical forward outcomes finished negative, with the weakest case at +1.2%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was limited because there were only 6 cases.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (6)
6 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Bullish historical skew on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 6 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 100% of the time with a median move of +1.7%. Results were relatively consistent across historical cases. No historical forward outcomes finished negative, with the weakest outcome at +1.2%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.