Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (5)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return5 outcomes
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 5 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 40% and a median move of -0.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -4.3%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.
Distribution
Average return was +0.2%, while median return was -0.6%. The average and median pointed in different directions, so the distribution was not directionally clean.
Risk
Risk was elevated. Weaker historical cases fell around -3.6% or worse over 5 trading days, with the weakest case at -4.3%.
Reliability
Historical evidence was limited because there were only 5 cases.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Historical Matches (5)
5 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 5 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 40% and a median move of -0.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -4.3%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.