20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
12 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | TGTNYSETarget Corporation | 2019-05-072019-06-04 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +2.33% |
| 2 | STLDNASDAQSteel Dynamics Inc. | 2012-09-192012-10-16 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | +1.34% |
| 3 | DLTRNASDAQDollar Tree, Inc. | 2015-11-092015-12-07 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -0.94% |
| 4 | KKRNYSEKKR & Co. Inc. | 2020-06-222020-07-20 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.54% |
| 5 | WYNNNASDAQWynn Resorts, Limited | 2013-07-172013-08-13 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.20% |
| 6 | CIENNYSECiena Corporation | 2021-10-182021-11-12 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.04% |
| 7 | FENYSEFirstEnergy Corp. | 2022-08-222022-09-19 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -7.38% |
| 8 | TRGPNYSETarga Resources Corp. | 2021-05-192021-06-16 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -7.58% |
| 9 | BGNYSEBunge Global S.A. | 2024-12-232025-01-23 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -1.30% |
| 10 | PNCNYSEThe PNC Financial Services Group, Inc. | 2009-12-212010-01-20 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume3.0Risk5.0 | -7.54% |
| 11 | NEENYSENextEra Energy, Inc. | 2010-08-052010-09-01 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -0.02% |
| 12 | NTRSNASDAQNorthern Trust Corporation | 2007-01-192007-02-15 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -0.44% |
Showing 1-12 of 12 matches
Commentary
Historically negative skew with elevated downside risk
Similar setups appeared 12 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 67% of the time with a median move of -0.7%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -7.6%.