Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (19)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return19 outcomes
Commentary
Mild bullish historical skew
Similar setups appeared 19 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 79% of the time with a median move of +1.3%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -9.3%.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between -1.7% and +3.8%. Average return was +0.7%, compared with a median return of +1.3%.
Risk
Tail risk was significant. Similar setups occasionally produced sharp adverse outcomes, with the weakest historical case at -9.3% over 5 trading days.
Reliability
Historical evidence was useful but not definitive, based on 19 cases with moderate match diversity.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Takeaway
Historical Matches (19)
19 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
The largest upside move reached during the five-day forward window before it closed.
+7.27%
Max Adverse Excursion
-10.63%
Similar setups historically leaned positive over 5 trading days, but downside risk was large enough that position sizing and risk control would matter.
Commentary
Mild bullish historical skew
Similar setups appeared 19 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 79% of the time with a median move of +1.3%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -9.3%.