20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
4 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MDTNYSEMedtronic plc | 2021-01-122021-02-09 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.24% |
| 2 | AXPNYSEAmerican Express Company | 2007-11-072007-12-05 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -6.65% |
| 3 | AFLNYSEAflac Inc. | 2013-12-192014-01-17 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | -4.51% |
| 4 | PMNYSEPhilip Morris International Inc. | 2024-09-192024-10-16 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +8.70% |
Showing 1-4 of 4 matches
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 4 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 50% and a median move of -2.1%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -6.6%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.