Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
Current setupHistorical similar setups (11)
What happened next?
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
Average Return25th - 75th Percentile
Historical Forward Return Distribution
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
Positive returnNegative return11 outcomes
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes
Similar setups appeared 11 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 55% and a median move of +0.2%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -11.3%.
Distribution
The broad historical outcome range sat between -10.4% and +3.8%. Average return was -0.6%, compared with a median return of +0.2%.
Risk
Tail risk was significant. Similar setups occasionally produced sharp adverse outcomes, with the weakest historical case at -11.3% over 5 trading days.
Reliability
Historical evidence was useful but not definitive, based on 11 cases with moderate match diversity.
Match Quality
Historical matches were structurally strong, with a median quality score of 5/5 and median shape score of 5/5.
Takeaway
Historical Matches (11)
11 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes
Similar setups appeared 11 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 55% and a median move of +0.2%. Results varied widely across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -11.3%.