20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
3 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | PCARNASDAQPACCAR Inc. | 2011-06-222011-07-20 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -11.93% |
| 2 | AEPNASDAQAmerican Electric Power Company, Inc. | 2011-06-222011-07-20 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.4.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +0.24% |
| 3 | LITENASDAQLumentum Holdings Inc. | 2025-08-292025-09-26 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.3.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.90% |
Showing 1-3 of 3 matches
Commentary
Mixed historical outcomes on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 3 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, outcomes were mixed, with a positive-return rate of 67% and a median move of +0.2%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -11.9%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.