20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
3 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | MKCNYSEMcCormick & Company, Incorporated | 2018-09-272018-10-24 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.5.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +1.92% |
| 2 | PYPLNASDAQPayPal Holdings Inc | 2017-02-282017-03-27 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility3.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -1.04% |
| 3 | ACGLNASDAQArch Capital Group Ltd | 2017-06-092017-07-07 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.3.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | +0.98% |
Showing 1-3 of 3 matches
Commentary
Mild bullish historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 3 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished higher 67% of the time with a median move of +1.0%. Results were relatively consistent across historical cases. Downside risk was elevated, with the worst historical outcome at -1.0%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.