20-day closing price history ending 2026-06-12.
Compares the current normalized 20-day setup with every historical match.
5-day forward returns after historically similar setups.
5-day returns across the matched historical setup sample, grouped into return ranges.
3 historical setups matched the current 20-day pattern.
| Match | Symbol | Historical Move | Similarity Score | Forward5D Return |
|---|---|---|---|---|
| 1 | STLDNASDAQSteel Dynamics Inc. | 2011-06-242011-07-22 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -5.56% |
| 2 | CTSHNASDAQCognizant Technology Solutions Corporation | 2012-06-072012-07-05 | 5.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility5.0Range Pos.5.0Volume4.0Risk5.0 | -8.09% |
| 3 | ITWNYSEIllinois Tool Works Inc. | 2024-10-082024-11-04 | 4.0 Shape5.0Trend5.0Volatility4.0Range Pos.2.0Volume5.0Risk5.0 | +3.94% |
Showing 1-3 of 3 matches
Commentary
Negative historical skew with elevated downside risk on limited evidence
Similar setups appeared 3 times historically. Over the next 5 trading days, the setup finished lower 67% of the time with a median move of -5.6%. Results were moderately consistent across historical cases. Downside tail risk was high, with the worst historical outcome at -8.1%. The sample was limited, so this should be treated as weak historical evidence.